The Perfect Storm - what the Ukraine war can teach us about resilience

Even in the months before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world has been experiencing a global energy crisis that surprised many experts.

Much talk around this crisis had focused on the “supply shock” and was blamed on the disruption of global supply chains associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, analysts see it as much more than that: An upward demand shock that is by far outstripping supply, with the persistent and accelerating depletion of fossil fuels at its root.

Unlike the 1970s oil crisis, the prices for all other key energy sources – oil, coal, natural gas (and therefore also, electricity) – are soaring everywhere and simultaneously. Demand is now eroding the inventories despite adequate production levels. Despite the growth of renewables such as solar and wind, fossil fuels still make up 80% of global energy consumption. Since renewables also rely on fossil fuel inputs, they are also affected by the energy crisis.

If this wasn’t enough, Russia’s invasion into Ukraine has exposed the dependency on Russian gas and oil supplies, and vulnerability, of many countries – in particular the EU’s. Although a net total energy exporter since 2019, in 2021, the U.S. imported about 8% of liquid fuels from Russia. On March 8, it banned imports of Russian oil, coal, and gas to reduce the impact on global supplies and consumers. Also, the U.S., alongside its allies and partners, has imposed further severe economic sanctions that will disrupt Russia’s economic and financial system long-term.

Therefore, it makes sense to rethink our energy use from a resource angle to buffer the impacts from rising energy prices and living costs. One way or another, using less energy will soon become part of our culture. Already, we are being forced to rethink our energy consumption following warnings of fuel rationing due to soaring energy prices. The perfect storm seems to be approaching fast.

What better time to start the transition now, so that the inevitable change can be managed responsibly rather than crippling human and planetary welfare?

Starting the Great Transition

There is clear evidence that all the stuff we buy, including the energy and resources that are required to produce it, is by far the strongest determinant of global impacts. During the past decades, soaring consumption levels aided by population growth, have outweighed any efficiency gains made from technological changes [1].

While consumers may have little control over decisions made along supply chains, they are in control over what they buy and use [2]. Buying less stuff means fewer fossil fuels and resources are being extracted. Being more energy-efficient means using less power to perform a task such as heating your home.

Reducing, not just greening, our demand for energy and resources is key. The main issues are: avoiding buying houses larger than needed; oversized, fuel-hungry cars; eating fewer animal products; reducing food waste, and driving/flying less. [3].

If you live in a wealthy country, here are 5 simple and effective steps that most people can take in the short term:

1. Turn down your heating by one degree and adjust your AC

To ease dependency on Russian gas the International Energy Agency has just advised turning thermostats down by at least 1°C/31°F. They estimate this would reduce gas demand by some 10 billion cubic meters a year or roughly 7% of Europe’s annual imports from Russia.

For rooms you spend a lot of time in, like the living room, a temperature of 20°C/68°F is a good guide to being comfortable. But most people in Europe and North America are setting their heating too high (22°C /72°F or above) in winter or their air conditioning too low in summer and therefore pay too much in energy bills. The U.S. Energy Star program has further information on how to energy-proof your home and save money.

2. Drive less or live car-free if you can

Owning and driving a car is expensive and energy-extracting. Walking and cycling not only improve health and wellbeing but save money.

On average, U.S. citizens spend $2,473 on their car, parts, and gasoline. Unfortunately, the rise of the resource-heavy and energy-hungry SUV has degraded the global fuel economy – despite efficiency improvements in smaller cars that replaced over 2 million barrels of oil per day and electric cars saving less than 100,000 barrels a day.

When buying a car, choosing an efficient one doesn’t mean trading-off on features or style. For example, a Range Rover SUV drives 37 MPG compared to a Ford Fiesta (70 MPG) or an electric SMART forfour (173 MPGe). Also, think about car sharing and carpooling to get more efficiently from A to B, and public transport.

3. Swap meat for more plants and reduce food waste

Meat and dairy are more resource-intensive to produce than plant-based foods. Phasing out animal agriculture and switching to a plant-based diet would reduce the world’s reliance on fossil fuels and stop the increase in greenhouse gases for decades.

In the U.S. and other wealthy countries, people eat much more protein than necessary and of the wrong sort [4]. Eating less animal protein and more plants is also the healthier option. It doesn’t mean becoming a vegetarian or vegan. Just cutting the current consumption of meat, dairy, and eggs by half would have significant benefits for resource use, health, and the environment.

Then there is food waste. In the U.S., food production accounts for 10% of the total U.S. energy budget, 50% of land, and 80% of all freshwater consumed. Yet about one-third of all food – worth $161.6 billion – is thrown away each year and ends up in landfills. When food is wasted, all the energy, land, water, and inputs for transporting and processing it are wasted, too. At the same time, 1 in 8 people in the U.S. struggle to put food on the table. One of the easiest ways to conserve energy is to waste less food; learn more about it here.

3. Buy less stuff

All the stuff we buy contributes more than 60% to global GHG emissions and 50% to 80% of total land, material, and water use. Although space heating, transportation, and food are the largest resource and energy-draining household categories, other areas are also important.

Take electronics, for example. Each year, the world spends a trillion US dollars on consumer electronics and counting. Smartphones, PCs, and other electronics require a lot of energy and precious materials to produce yet we discard them way before their designed lifetimes.

With each cell phone we replace, we throw away valuable resources. In Europe, this amounts to 16.2 kilograms of e-waste per person. Globally, only 17.4 percent of e-waste is recycled. Yet, recycling one ton of iPhones would yield 300 times more gold than a ton of gold ore and 6.5 times more silver than a tonne of silver ore.

So before buying that new gadget consider if it can be used for longer or if it can be repaired or upgraded. If it does need replacing, check out this information on more sustainable electronic products and their efficient use.

5. Use a condom

Yes, really (or other methods of contraception). Although not mentioned in textbooks, having one child less is one of the most energy and resource-saving actions since it affects all the other points mentioned above: it’s roughly 37 times more effective than living car-free or 590 times more effective than upgrading to energy-efficient light bulbs, for example [5]. More people place more demands on national and global energy supplies, materials, and infrastructure – especially since there will soon be 8 billion of us.

However, it’s important to bank your energy savings. This means if you’ve saved money on your heating bill by switching down your thermostat, don’t spend it elsewhere – such as driving more miles in your (fuel-efficient) car. Energy efficiency only works for your pocket and planet if the end result is energy conservation. *

It is this shift in consciousness that needs to happen if we want to avoid utter misery. Perhaps this latest war will heighten our awareness of the crisis we are in.

Instead of ever more, bigger, and faster, we need to rediscover being content with simpler thrills. The success or failure of this will determine the outcome.

In times like these, it’s worth noting that Russia – with a population less than half of the United States and a much lower resource and energy consumption – doesn’t run an ecological deficit like most EU countries, China, or the US. Its demand for biological resources doesn’t outstrip its supply. And unlike Europe, Russia is a net exporter of energy, using only a fraction of its own energy production. This makes Russia more resilient to external shocks (price hikes or economic sanctions, for example) and largely self-sufficient due to the country’s natural capital and energy reserves.

So whatever your reasons for conserving energy – environmental, political, or your own pocket – do it.

* This is because of the so-called rebound effect: energy-efficiency measures lead to lower production costs and prices, thereby incentivizing increased production and consumption.

References:

[1] Haberl, H. et al. A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights. Environ.Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a (2020)

[2] Lange, S. Macroeconomics without growth: sustainable economies in neoclassical, Keynesian and Marxian theories. Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Nachhaltigkeitsforschung (Metropolis-Verlag, 2018)

[3] Alexander, S. Sufficiency Economy: Enough, for Everyone, Forever (Simplicity Institute, 2015)

[4] Frey, S. and Barrett, J. Our health, our environment: The Ecological Footprint of what we eat. International Ecological Footprint Conference. Cardiff, 8–10 May 2007. Cardiff: BRASS, Cardiff University

[5] Based on: Seth Wynes and Kimberly A Nicholas. The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions. 2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 074024

The Perfect Storm – what the Ukraine war can teach us about resilience